Weins Leads Armstrong in 2008

On Saturday, three of the cycling world’s greats will do battle in the mountains of Colorado during the Leadville 100 ultramarathon mountain bike race.

The best known of the three is, of course, Lance Armstrong. We all know him best for his Tour de France victories and cancer advocacy, but his career is longer and more accomplished than most people realize. Without doubt, he is one of the world’s prime riders and should be taken seriously anytime he announces plans to compete.

In last year’s Leadville 100, Lance finished second to Dave Weins, who crossed the line with just less than a 2 minute lead over the super-legend. While unknown to most, Dave raced as a professional mountain biker for over 20 years, retiring in 2004. He has also won the past 6 Leadville 100’s and the Adventure Racing world championships in 2006. Like Armstrong, Dave devotes much of his time to good causes, working to promote cycling and mountain biking throughout the world.

The third powerhouse is Tinker Juarez, a living legend of mountain biking. Tinker has been racing professionally since 1986 and has a long, long list of victories and achievements from the early 90’s through the past few years. He’s also no stranger to the long distances and rigors of ultramarathons, having been crowned the North American 24 hour Solo Champion 4 times in his career.

So, who will win? Only the finish line can tell us for sure, but my money is on Armstrong. Unlike the Tour de France, Lance is the spring chicken in this race, pitting his 37 years against Weins’s 45 and Tinker’s 48. Lance’s performance with Astana in July definitely showed the world that an ‘old man’ can still ride with the best of them, but, all other things being equal, his 8 and 11 year advantage in age is a big factor.

Last year, Lance lost to Wein by just under 2 minutes and it was his first competitive race since the 2006 Tour de France. This year, he’s been back in training with a purpose and is coming off of an incredible run in Europe. I doubt that he ever had a spare tire around his middle, but there’s no doubt that he’s in better condition than he was last year. I think it’s fair to say that his preparation for this year’s Leadville was much more intense than last year’s.

Finally, Lance didn’t look so good on the mountain bike in 2008. He was fast, but he wasn’t smooth in the way that accomplished mountain bikers are. Riding at 40 miles per hour on a road is one thing. Putting forth the same effort and managing the technical demands of a trail are another. But, with some practice over the past 12 months, Armstrong has improved dramatically. His Colorado State Championships win at Snow Mass showed the world that he’s as at home on the dirt as he is on the pavement.

The great question – and deciding factor in my mind – is whether or not Lance has fully recovered from the Tour. An average human would take months to recover from an effort like the one he made in France. But he’s not average. He might not even be human. To say that he can fully recover in 4 weeks might not be a stretch. After all, he did dominate the race at Snow Mass and didn’t look at all like a tired, recovering roadie.

Armstrong seems to have sealed the chinks in his armor with dedicated training and practice on the bike. I suspect that we’ll see him cross the finish line first on Saturday, but I don’t think it will be a blow out. Tinker and Weins aren’t there for the scenery and they’re not afraid to go after him with every thing they’ve got. It should be a spectacular race and an interesting battle.

The race begins at 6:30am MDT on Saturday, August 15th and the winner should be across the line between noon and 1:00pm. You can view live race coverage online for $5.95 at the Leadville 100 website. Good luck to all!